How many points needed to stay up?

[markrammond]

I see the season as being one in which has effectively become a mini-league of Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan, QPR, Norwich City, Swansea City and Wolverhampton Wanderers.  The top four are the Champions League places 

I genuinely cannot see Wigan or Blackburn getting any more than five wins and ten draws from less than thirty fixtures, in fact I would suggest neither will make 35 points this season, probably about 30-32 points maximum.  We need Steve Kean to stay on and Wigan to remain with a dearth of quality and they will finish behind us.

Wolves have more fighting spirit and a mix of reasonable and average players, a lot like us, so the games against them will be amongst our biggest of the season, it could be between them and us to stay up.  QPR are our insurance policy.  They should get to around 35-36 points but no more.

The bubble is yet to burst for Swansea, however like Burnley last season they are getting all their points at home and this can't continue especially as the fixtures have been enormously kind.  I think Norwich will stay clear of relegation with something to spare, they have gone well in just about all their fixtures

Our need now to gain a positive result in about half our remaining games, something along the lines of eight wins, seven draws and the rest losses should be enough, so what ever is needed we need to do.

What do other people think, how many points do we need?  I think 36 will be enough this year.

[ReebokTrotter]

I tend to agree. I think 42 points is a bridge too far for us and a number of the other bottom feeders. I reckon 38 points will be enough to avoid the drop.

[Le God]

The first target needs to be beating Derby's record low.

I'd hate to have that record.

Was it 12? anyway, 2 more wins!

[Big_Sharps]

The first target needs to be beating Derby's record low.

I'd hate to have that record.

Was it 12? anyway, 2 more wins!

Get a grip lad.

[Natasha Whittam]

I see the season as being one in which has effectively become a mini-league of Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan, QPR, Norwich City, Swansea City and Wolverhampton Wanderers.  The top four are the Champions League places 

I genuinely cannot see Wigan or Blackburn getting any more than five wins and ten draws from less than thirty fixtures, in fact I would suggest neither will make 35 points this season, probably about 30-32 points maximum.  We need Steve Kean to stay on and Wigan to remain with a dearth of quality and they will finish behind us.

Wolves have more fighting spirit and a mix of reasonable and average players, a lot like us, so the games against them will be amongst our biggest of the season, it could be between them and us to stay up.  QPR are our insurance policy.  They should get to around 35-36 points but no more.

The bubble is yet to burst for Swansea, however like Burnley last season they are getting all their points at home and this can't continue especially as the fixtures have been enormously kind.  I think Norwich will stay clear of relegation with something to spare, they have gone well in just about all their fixtures

Our need now to gain a positive result in about half our remaining games, something along the lines of eight wins, seven draws and the rest losses should be enough, so what ever is needed we need to do.

What do other people think, how many points do we need?  I think 36 will be enough this year.

Blackburn will sack Kean very soon and bring in a big name. He'll spend £100m ensuring they survive.

QPR won't go down because they'll be able to spend big in January.

Swansea are more organised than Burnley (because Coyle isn't in charge) and won't be close to the bottom 3.

Norwich have a good manager and will be comfortable.

Wolves are struggling but do have a bit of fight.

Wigan are shite.

Bolton are shite.

We're doomed I tells ya!!

[Le God]

Get a grip lad.

What? You don't want us to have that record do you?

it would be a disaster.

As far as Wolves go... fight? hmm the last 3 times i've seen them they've been utter utter dogshit.

[dh1985]

Blackburn will sack Kean very soon and bring in a big name. He'll spend £100m ensuring they survive.

QPR won't go down because they'll be able to spend big in January.

Swansea are more organised than Burnley (because Coyle isn't in charge) and won't be close to the bottom 3.

Norwich have a good manager and will be comfortable.

Wolves are struggling but do have a bit of fight.

Wigan are shite.

Bolton are shite.

We're doomed I tells ya!!

Only two teams going down this year then? 

[ReebokTrotter]

If Blackburn spend £100 million in January I will show my ample arse in Ventucky's window.

[Natasha Whittam]

Only two teams going down this year then? 

Where did I say that clever clogs?

[dh1985]

Where did I say that clever clogs?

Who's the third team then? Us, Wigan and....

[Natasha Whittam]

Who's the third team then? Us, Wigan and....

I don't know really, I was just giving my thoughts on the clubs mentioned by markrammond.

Someone always drops like a stone after Christmas - someone like Fulham, Stoke or Sunderland could always go down with us.

[aarons2009]

I don't know really, I was just giving my thoughts on the clubs mentioned by markrammond.

Someone always drops like a stone after Christmas - someone like Fulham, Stoke or Sunderland could always go down with us.

I think QPR, for all the money they have will still be there or there abouts to get relegated come may.

As for points I think 35-38 points will be enough but I would put money on Wigan finishing 20th, they have to be the worst team in the league with out a doubt......followed very closely by us.

[ReebokTrotter]

Perm any combinations from the following for relegation. Us, Wigan, Blackburn, QPR, Fulham and Norwich . I actually think Swansea will be the surprise package to stay up and I think Sunderland, Wolves, Stoke and West Brom will be okay as well..,

[bwfcbob123]

Perm any combinations from the following for relegation. Us, Wigan, Blackburn, QPR, Fulham and Norwich . I actually think Swansea will be the surprise package to stay up and I think Sunderland, Wolves, Stoke and West Brom will be okay as well..,

I think Us, Blackburn and Fulham would be quite poetic, as we all came up together and none of us have gone down since.

[jayjay23]

The frightening thing is this....

There are 28 games left. 84 points available. If we win every single game from now until the last day of the season we will finish on 90 points. But the fact is we are not going to do that.

If we win all of our remaining home matches we will get 39 points. Finishing on 45. Again, we are not going to do that either.

If we win 50% of our remaining games we will finish on 48 points in total. Bolton never win 50% of their games.

Our average points per game

last season was 1.2 ppg
season prior 1.03 ppg
before that 1.08 ppg

So, if you look at our club on an average points per game (ignoring this season) we get 1.1 points per match. (Our average this season is 0.6 points per match).

So if we work on the basis of equalling our average achievements for the previous 3 seasons we will finish on a grand total of 34 points for the season. And that is if we rapidly improve!

Let me put that into perspective.
From the remaining 28 games we would need to draw 10 and win 6. Doesn't sound much does it. But that means going unbeaten for 16 out of the last 28 games. And when you consider we have yet to play Spurs, Arsenal, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpoool, City - that is at least 7 games we won't be expecting points from. Which means from 21 games we can hope to get points from - we need to avoid defeat in 16 of them.

Can we do that?

[bwfcbob123]

The frightening thing is this....

There are 28 games left. 84 points available. If we win every single game from now until the last day of the season we will finish on 90 points. But the fact is we are not going to do that.

If we win all of our remaining home matches we will get 39 points. Finishing on 45. Again, we are not going to do that either.

If we win 50% of our remaining games we will finish on 48 points in total. Bolton never win 50% of their games.

Our average points per game

last season was 1.2 ppg
season prior 1.03 ppg
before that 1.08 ppg

So, if you look at our club on an average points per game (ignoring this season) we get 1.1 points per match. (Our average this season is 0.6 points per match).

So if we work on the basis of equalling our average achievements for the previous 3 seasons we will finish on a grand total of 34 points for the season. And that is if we rapidly improve!

Let me put that into perspective.
From the remaining 28 games we would need to draw 10 and win 6. Doesn't sound much does it. But that means going unbeaten for 16 out of the last 28 games. And when you consider we have yet to play Spurs, Arsenal, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpoool, City - that is at least 7 games we won't be expecting points from. Which means from 21 games we can hope to get points from - we need to avoid defeat in 16 of them.

Can we do that?

Probably not, no.

[largehat]

jayay - We have a great record against Tottenham at the Reebok, and we only lost at their place last season due to a last minute wonder goal. They're a different prospect to us than  Manchester, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. I know you weren't writing off any of the games against the others, but at the same time I wouldn't lump Tottenham with them.

[1andonly1derer]

It's all West Ham's fault.

Them getting relegated cost us 6 points.

Inconsiderate cockney wankers.

[DaveBWFC]

Upson plays for Stoke now though. As long as he plays we're guaranteed the points again.

[1andonly1derer]

We normally have a good November, so I think 4 points from the next 2 games will put us in good stead. December and January look tough, but I still think we'll be able to pick up points here and there, and hopefully our home form will pick up.

We need to make the Reebok a fortress again.

[Gloria Stitz]

I have a feeling somebody will stay up on as little as 32 points.

There are several teams down there that are really no good at all.

Thanks for reading,

Gloria.

[ReebokTrotter]

Gloria, have a look at the Introduction section and post a bit about yourself. Things like vital statistics are always appreciated.

[Gloria Stitz]

ReebokTrotter, you are a gentlemen. But I most certainly did not sign up to discuss that.

Besides, the number of people whoes final post on here is also their first - on the introduction section, makes me somewhat suspicious that its cursed. Because obviously its nothing to do with the quite intimidating characters on here!

Thanks for understanding,

Gloria.

[ReebokTrotter]

Gloria, Do not feel intimidated. If you nail your colours to the mast from the outset then posters will know how far they can go with you. I assure you, I am not trying to get into your knickers. They probably wouldn't fit me.
We don't get many female posters on here and your definition of glorious may well differ from mine.

From a personal perspective, I have always found that anything more than a handful is wasted, mind you, I only have very small hands.

If the intro section is not your scene then by all means give it a miss. It is purely optional.

[jayjay23]

Welcome on board Gloria.
Am I allowed to say that yet?
I have posted here for a couple of years non stop and I am still an outsider!