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traf
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« Reply #25 on: 06 January 2011, 05:07 PM » |
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Laying bets basically means you're being the bookie?
I suppose so, yes. |
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Everybody is a genius. But, if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will spend its whole life believing that it is stupid
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traf
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« Reply #26 on: 07 January 2011, 01:01 PM » |
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Friday:
1.10 Lingfield: Kipchak (currently 13/8) 5th
4.40 Wolverhampton: Gearbox (currently 7/2) won
6.10 Wolverhampton: Steel Rain E/W (currently 50/1) (you'll get much higher on betfair!) 5th at 66/1!
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« Last Edit: 07 January 2011, 11:45 PM by traf »
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Everybody is a genius. But, if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will spend its whole life believing that it is stupid
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Jamster26
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« Reply #27 on: 07 January 2011, 01:05 PM » |
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I'll go for gearbox.
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"Just when they think they have all the answers, I change the questions".
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DaveBWFC
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« Reply #28 on: 07 January 2011, 01:07 PM » |
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Friday:
6.10 Wolverhampton: Steel Rain E/W (currently 50/1) (you'll get much higher on betfair!)
That's my kind of bet. I'm gonna go for it and have £1 each way. |
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traf
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« Reply #29 on: 07 January 2011, 11:45 PM » |
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I'll go for gearbox.
Then you'll have been pleased. |
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Everybody is a genius. But, if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will spend its whole life believing that it is stupid
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traf
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« Reply #30 on: 07 January 2011, 11:45 PM » |
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1 winner from 3 today for a small profit of 1.5pts
After 3 days:
9 horses = 9pts staked
2 winners
5 placed
Loss of 0.02pts.
Not in the best form at present, but only 2p down for every £ staked.
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Everybody is a genius. But, if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will spend its whole life believing that it is stupid
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Jamster26
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« Reply #31 on: 07 January 2011, 11:47 PM » |
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Then you'll have been pleased.
Don't tell me it bloody won! |
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"Just when they think they have all the answers, I change the questions".
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traf
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« Reply #32 on: 08 January 2011, 12:16 AM » |
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It won, but I hope you took the early 7/2 price.
It was heavily backed into 13/8 and won easily by 3.5 lengths, cantering at the end.
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Everybody is a genius. But, if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will spend its whole life believing that it is stupid
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traf
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« Reply #33 on: 08 January 2011, 12:43 PM » |
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Saturday 8th Jan
1.30 Sandown: Comedy Act (currently 11/10)
2.50 Chepstow: Another Kate ( 28/1 E/W)
2.50 Chepstow: Oscar Papa (6/1)
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Everybody is a genius. But, if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will spend its whole life believing that it is stupid
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bolton78
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« Reply #34 on: 09 January 2011, 10:50 AM » |
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i had synchronised & minella class yesterday
todays bets to follow
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formally know as ahindle_874
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bolton78
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« Reply #35 on: 09 January 2011, 11:00 AM » |
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1.40 southwell holyrood £10 win @ 2/1
3.20 southwell even stenens £5 win @ 7/4
3.55 southwell double carpet £5 win @5/1
might have a few at leopardstown yet
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formally know as ahindle_874
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traf
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« Reply #36 on: 09 January 2011, 12:34 PM » |
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Pretty piss poor fare today in the UK: just poxy lower grade sand racing.
I don't have any regular bets for today, but if I was to have a small punt through the card, I'd go with:
1.10: Kheley (3/1)
1.40: Castle Myth (7/4)
2.15: Dontpaytheferryman (1/2)
2.45: Dubai Hills (8/11)
3.20: Even Stevens (9/4)
3.55: Double Carpet (11/2)
Prices correct as of 12.30.
Looks like a favourites day today, bar the last race.
I'd expect bolton78 to make a few quid.
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Everybody is a genius. But, if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will spend its whole life believing that it is stupid
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ReebokTrotter
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« Reply #37 on: 09 January 2011, 01:42 PM » |
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I dabble with the odd Yankee but I never bet on the Sabbath. I will have a look in tomorrow's papers and we can compare selections.
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Why do we experiment on animals when there are so many lawyers ?
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ReebokTrotter
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« Reply #38 on: 09 January 2011, 01:52 PM » |
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Dubai Hills looks a dead cert.
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Why do we experiment on animals when there are so many lawyers ?
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bolton78
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« Reply #39 on: 09 January 2011, 02:12 PM » |
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castle myth won
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formally know as ahindle_874
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bolton78
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« Reply #40 on: 09 January 2011, 02:28 PM » |
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Dubai Hills looks a dead cert.
i cant see the point of backing odds on,never have,never will |
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formally know as ahindle_874
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traf
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« Reply #41 on: 09 January 2011, 03:01 PM » |
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i cant see the point of backing odds on,never have,never will
The odds of a horse are (IMO) irrelevant. It's all about value. Dubai Hills was 8/11 when I posted it up. It was available at higher earlier. However, let's look at the 8/11 price to see if there's value. If that race was run 19 times, I'd expect Dubai Hills to win about 12 times ie around 2 in 3. (I always round down) Therefore, to me, it's a breakeven bet at 7/12 odds. 8/11 (quoted price) = 1.73 decimal odds My perceived odds of 7/12 = 1.58 decimal odds Therefore at 8/11, I'm getting almost 26% more profit than at 7/12: it becomes a value bet to me and is therefore worth backing. It actually won at 4/7 = 1.57, which is 1.72% below par, so I wouldn't have been interested at 4/7. I hope I've not confused the issue or come across as patronising: I don't know where your own level is on this. |
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Everybody is a genius. But, if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will spend its whole life believing that it is stupid
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bolton78
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« Reply #42 on: 09 January 2011, 03:28 PM » |
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no its a fair point,but i just cant see the point personally
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formally know as ahindle_874
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traf
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« Reply #43 on: 09 January 2011, 04:42 PM » |
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no its a fair point,but i just cant see the point personally
A fair point that you just can't see?  |
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Everybody is a genius. But, if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will spend its whole life believing that it is stupid
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ReebokTrotter
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« Reply #44 on: 10 January 2011, 09:40 AM » |
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My five selections for today.
Towcester 1.25. Emperor Charlie 4-1
Towcester 2.25. Redbridge Flyer 9-4
Taunton 2.15. Triggerman 9-2
Taunton 3.15. American Ladie 10-3
Wolverhampton 4.05. Kate Skate 5-2.
Traf / Bolton78. If you fancy nominating five selections as well, we could have a competition. Two points for a win and one for a place.
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« Last Edit: 10 January 2011, 11:35 AM by ReebokTrotter »
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Why do we experiment on animals when there are so many lawyers ?
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traf
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« Reply #45 on: 10 January 2011, 10:00 AM » |
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If you wanted to run a comp, it would surely have to be based around profit & loss, rather than winners & places.
Strike rates & consistency are one thing, but returns are the key.
PS Your 2.55 selection actually runs at 2.25 and you can get 3/1.
You can also get 7's for Emperor Charlie, 13/2 for Triggerman, 4/1 for American Ladie and 9/2 for Kate Skate.
Most of my betting activity is done on laying rather than backing, so my first job is to find horses that won't win. So, I've not actually looked to try and find any winners yet, but I'll have a look shortly.
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« Last Edit: 10 January 2011, 10:05 AM by traf »
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Everybody is a genius. But, if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will spend its whole life believing that it is stupid
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ReebokTrotter
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« Reply #46 on: 10 January 2011, 10:57 AM » |
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Traf, Cheers. I am happy to run it on a profit and loss basis if it based on the odds. I haven't a clue how to work out the profit and loss margins, I just take my winning slip to the bookies. Which isn't all that often!
Do we go off the starting prices ?
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Why do we experiment on animals when there are so many lawyers ?
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Big_Sharps
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« Reply #47 on: 10 January 2011, 11:00 AM » |
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Horse racing is cruel to horses.
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ReebokTrotter
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« Reply #48 on: 10 January 2011, 11:21 AM » |
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That would be perfectly true if you were in the saddle.
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Why do we experiment on animals when there are so many lawyers ?
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traf
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« Reply #49 on: 10 January 2011, 11:26 AM » |
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Traf, Cheers. I am happy to run it on a profit and loss basis if it based on the odds. I haven't a clue how to work out the profit and loss margins, I just take my winning slip to the bookies. Which isn't all that often!
Do we go off the starting prices ?
You can either go off bookies starting price, betfair starting price or a price quoted at the time of posting. Generally speaking, unless you get a good early price: Betfair Sp pays more, but if you're using a bookie, it;'ll be bookie Sp. Just state which you're using, each time you put your picks up. |
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Everybody is a genius. But, if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will spend its whole life believing that it is stupid
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